Goldman Sachs Raises 2024 S&P 500 Projection Due to Heightened Confidence in March Fed Rate Cuts.
Wall Street’s optimistic stance on interest rate cuts is influencing more positive predictions for stocks.
With inflation declining more rapidly than initially anticipated, the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance, and bond yields decreasing, Goldman Sachs now envisions the S&P 500 (^GSPC) concluding 2024 at 5,100.
In its initial forecast released about a month ago, Goldman Sachs had anticipated the benchmark index to finish the year at 4,700, reflecting around a 5% upside for stocks in the following year.
The updated forecast specifically attributes recent economic data, including lower-than-expected inflation for producers and robust November retail sales figures, to the more optimistic outlook.
Goldman Sachs’ equity strategy team, led by David Kostin, highlighted, “Above-consensus retail sales growth further evidenced economic resilience, while lower-than-expected jobless claims affirmed that the labor market remains healthy.”
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The S&P 500 has recently exceeded Goldman’s initial 2024 target, nearing its record high of 4,796. This shift comes as market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased significantly, following the Fed’s addition of an interest rate cut to its forecast for the next year.
Goldman recently revised its rate hike expectations, anticipating the first cut to occur in March, as opposed to the previous expectation of cuts starting in the fourth quarter.
An earlier initiation of rate cuts would be favorable for stocks with weaker balance sheets, according to Goldman’s equity strategy team, as historically, a scenario of falling interest rates and improving economic growth expectations has supported small-cap stocks, which have recently traded at low valuations.
Goldman is not alone in anticipating that rate cuts will commence in the first quarter of the next year. In new research released on
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Monday, Bank of America now foresees 100 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2024, indicating one more cut than previously projected. Bank of America expects rate cuts to begin in March, compared to the earlier prediction of cuts starting in June.
“Incoming data is signaling the US economy can enjoy both modest growth and disinflation simultaneously,” noted BofA US economist Michael Gapen in a client note.
Overall, the markets are currently indicating a nearly 75% chance of a rate cut in March, as per the CME Fed Watch Tool. A month ago, the probability of cuts by March was only 28%.
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